Holiday depletions begin amid shifting category momentum
Beer momentum softens heading into November.
IRI data indicated beer volumes declined 1.8 percent year-over-year in October’s final week, with below-premium lagers leading losses. Imports remained resilient, up 3 percent, supported by Modelo and Corona share gains in chain retailers.
Spirits growth narrows in key control states.
According to NABCA data compiled by Citi Research, total spirits depletions fell 2.6 percent YoY in September, the weakest reading since early 2023. Tequila remained positive at +1.1 percent, while whiskey and vodka posted declines exceeding 5 percent.
RTDs sustain double-digit expansion.
Canned cocktail volumes rose 28 percent YoY in control states, extending a streak of category outperformance driven by premium spirits-based SKUs and convenience adoption. Segment share has doubled since 2021, highlighting structural rotation toward flavor and portability.
Wine shipments face continued destocking.
NielsenIQ retail data showed table-wine sales down 6 percent YoY through mid-October, with sub-$15 segments hardest hit. Higher-end domestic producers reported cautious replenishment orders from distributors as retailers trimmed inventories ahead of the holidays.
Publicly traded suppliers signal margin focus.
Brown-Forman, Constellation, and Diageo issued mid-quarter updates emphasizing cost control and disciplined promotional spending. Executives highlighted improving input costs but continued caution around consumer trade-down in U.S. off-premise channels.
Distribution realignment continues in key states.
Multiple trade outlets reported ongoing territory consolidations in Florida and California following Reyes Holdings’ expanded presence. Supplier partners described a near-term adjustment period as pricing systems and logistics are integrated.
Premium tequila remains a standout growth driver.
SipSource depletion data for Q3 confirmed +8 percent growth in 100 percent-agave SKUs, contrasting with a –3 percent decline in standard tequila. The mix shift underscores sustained consumer willingness to trade up within a category perceived as “better-for-you.”
On-premise traffic softens after summer rebound.
CGA by Nielsen reported U.S. bar traffic down 2 percent versus September, with early indications of slower cocktail frequency. Spirits maintained 41 percent of total beverage-alcohol value, steady year-on-year, despite moderating visitation.
Chart of the Week — U.S. Spirits Volume and Price-Mix Trends (2025 YTD)
Premium segments have continued to drive value growth in 2025 despite flat to negative total volumes. Tequila and RTDs delivered positive price-mix contributions, while whiskey and vodka experienced simultaneous declines in both price and volume. The data illustrate how revenue resilience increasingly depends on premium and convenience-oriented segments.
Source: NABCA & Citi Research, October 2025.
Closing Synthesis
The week’s data reinforced a cautious but stable outlook for beverage-alcohol. Spirits’ premium tiers continue to offset broader volume weakness, while RTDs remain the clearest growth engine. With holiday shipments under way, the industry enters Q4 balancing margin discipline, moderating demand, and persistent portfolio realignment.
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